فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 156 (بهار 1401)

In this paper, using Iran's manufacturing plant panel data of firms with ten or more workers, markup's evolution at the firm level has been studied for Iran's economy from 2003 to 2013. Following the ACF approach, a translog production function has been estimated for each industry. Then, after estimating each firm's labor elasticity trend, we used the DLW approach to estimate and analyze the distributional variation of markup through time and among Iran's industries. We plot the kernel density of markups for the first and last year in data and show that the last year's markup distribution has become fattened in its upper tail compared to the first year. Next, we show that markups' distribution considerably differs from one industry to another, and each industry has a different weighted average markup trend. Finally, we show that exporter firms have charged more markup compared to domestic ones, and sanctions have positively affected this markup premium.

This study answers the question of whether monetary and fiscal policies are consistent in reaction to the demand pressure and inflationary conditions. In order to answer this question, in this study, the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies was examined in the period 1988: 1 to 2021:4, based on Demid’s approach (2018) and using model with time varying parameters (TVP). Following the study of  Kuttner (2016) in the framework of game theory, Nash equilibrium, scenarios for the interaction of these two policies were extracted in the policy matrix. The results confirm that the first quarter of 1992 to the second quarter of 1992 (two seasons) and also the second quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2011 (two seasons) were the only periods in which monetary and fiscal policymakers simultaneously and consistently tried to reduce the inflation gap. Also, in the first three seasons of 2006 and the second quarter of 2008 to the end of 2009 (7 seasons), the monetary and fiscal authorities reacted positively to the negative output gap simultaneously and had a counter-cyclical reaction to reduce the output gap in a coordinated manner. Based on these results and in the framework of the policy matrix, the Central Bank of Iran has been submissive to fiscal policies for most of the years. Therefore, it is suggested that in order to strengthen coordination between fiscal and monetary policymakers, the establishment of some institutional arrangements and legal frameworks should be on the agenda, including the implementation of both fiscal rules and inflation targeting and setting a legal framework for strengthening the central bank independence

In value added tax law, it was decided to distribute a share of revenue across local municipalities. This intergovernmental tax is the source of income for many local municipalities in developed countries and aimed, among other purposes, to mitigate the inequality across regions. Its allocation scheme has amended annually in budgetary and permanent laws due to its significance. However, there are almost no study to examine the structure of allotment and its consequences on regional disparity. This study benefits from administrative data to calculate Gini coefficients of intergovernmental transfer across provinces and counties. The Gini coefficients across provinces are 0.64 and 0.61 in 2016 and 2017, respectively. In 2018, dues to the change of distribution rules, it increases to 0.87, and it is expected that the new law will exacerbate inequality. The paper proposes new rules such that the transfer would a function of needs and responsibilities by local municipalities.

In the present study, an attempt has been made to investigate the dual effects of inflation in the total basket and commodity groups on income inequality in Iran. For this purpose, a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) and annual data from 1972-2020 is used. Research model in two formats with the aim of estimating the asymmetric effect of total basket inflation and inflation of 7 commodity groups (including 1. Food, beverages and tobacco, 2. Furniture and appliances and services used at home, 3. Health, 4. Housing, fuel and lighting, 5. Recreation and cultural affairs, education, restaurants and hotels, 6. Transport and communications 7. Clothing and footwear) on income inequality (share of the richest ten percent to the poorest ten percent) in a non-linear format) Was specified and estimated. The results in the first format (considering the total basket inflation) indicate that inflation is associated with a symmetrical effect and, conversely, the unemployment rate is associated with an asymmetric effect on income inequality. Government social expenditure has the opposite effect on inequality, and GDP per capita has a U inverted shape relationship with income inequality. In the second form, in the long run, increases and decreases in the inflation rate of the health group do not have a significant effect on income inequality. Inflation rate in the two groups of food and beverages and the group of entertainment and cultural affairs is associated with a direct and symmetrical effect on income inequality in Iran. Inflation rates in the furniture and housing, housing, transportation, communications, and clothing groups inversely and asymmetrically affect income inequality. Other results indicate that although the level of income inequality in the Iranian economy decreased after the revolution, it was not significantly different during the war from other years.

The purpose of this article is to understand the effect of the type of labor market contract on the productivity growth of total factor productivity (TFP) in Iran's manufacturing industries. For this purpose, while using panel data, in order to avoid the problem of simultaneity in the production function, productivity was measured by Levinsohn and Petrin semi-parametric methods. Then, using the skill intensity index, industries were divided into skilled and unskilled sections. In evaluating the impact of labor market contract type on productivity growth in skilled and unskilled sectors, the effect of two Schumpeterian growth variables on productivity growth of the leadership industry and the productivity gap between each industry and the leadership industry was also estimated. The results indicate that, first, temporary employment (TE) has a negative effect on productivity growth, but is more harmful in the skilled sectors. Second, the positive impact of the relative productivity gap and the productivity growth of the leader industry is consistent with the Schumpeterian growth literature.

On the one hand, the development of industry increases economic growth and on the other hand, due to higher pollution coefficients, it reduces the quality of the environment. Therefore, creating an optimal structure of the industry to reduce the negative externalities is very importance. Accordingly, the study by using the statistical evidence of MENA selected countries over 2010-2017 and applying spatial econometrics approach investigates the effect of industrial agglomeration on entropy index as pollution agglomeration.  The results show that there are spatial effects of pollutant emissions among the studied countries, Also, the agglomeration of the industry reduces the agglomeration of pollutants due to advantage of spillover effect of knowledge and technology and matching skills with jobs. In addition, the intensity of energy consumption increases the agglomeration of pollution. The Kuznets curve in the relationship between GDP and pollution agglomeration is confirmed by the nonlinear relationship between the two variables. Ultimately, the openness of the economy in neighboring countries due to the effects of spatial spillover leads to a reduction in pollution agglomeration.